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Summer Research Project 2023

  • Title: Using Landscape Ecology Tools to Understand Socio-Ecological Systems
  • Group Project Leader: Shersingh Joseph Tumber-Dávila
  • Mentors: Danelle Laflower; Lucy Lee; Shersingh Joseph Tumber-Dávila
  • Collaborators: Mayra Rodriguez Gonzalez; Jonathan Thompson
  • Project Description:

    This project will bring together the use of simulation models and spatial analyses to better understand physical, biological, and social processes in the real world. The landscape ecology subprojects will explore (a) how improving model input parameterization effects model output, (b) how environmental justice intersects with forest loss and protection, and (c) the impacts that nature based climate solutions and improved forest management strategies have on New England forest carbon. All projects are largely computer based and indoors.

    Subproject 1: Modeling the effects of nature-based climate solutions to enhance forest carbon stored on New England landscapes.

    Nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) will be heavily relied on to reach climate change mitigation policy goals. One suite of very commonly used NbCS is to enhance the amount of carbon stored in forests through improved forest management (IFM). We seek to understand the impact that IFM practices have on the amount of carbon stored in forests at a regional scale. For this study, the student will quantify whether, or by how much, IFM strategies enhance the carbon stored in New England forests at a regional scale using two unique modeling frameworks: i. the LANDIS-II model used by the Future Scenarios Project at Harvard Forest, and ii. the Forest Service forest vegetation simulator (FVS). The goal will be to improve our understanding of how IFM strategies may influence long-term forest dynamics and human land use across New England.

    This subproject will provide an opportunity to become familiar with existing spatial models of physical disturbance and forest dynamics, to develop R scripts to extend and link these models, to learn GIS tools for R, and to evaluate the effectiveness of provenance tools for supporting script development and for recording the details of repeated model runs.

    Desired Skills: Good computational and programming skills and experience with (or willingness to learn) R.
    Future Scenarios Project website: https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/other-tags/future-scenarios

    Subproject 2: Analyzing ground mounted solar array development in Massachusetts

    Ground-mounted solar arrays are an important tool to decarbonize the electricity grid and mitigate climate change. There are thousands of acres of ground-mounted solar arrays in Massachusetts, with thousands more acres to be built as the Commonwealth works to meet its legislatively mandated clean energy goals. While ground-mounted solar development is expanding rapidly, there are many unanswered questions about its impacts on lands with conservation or ecological values, forest fragmentation, and the human communities where arrays are disproportionately sited. This sub-project aims to understand patterns of ground-mounted solar siting in Massachusetts as they relate to land cover and use; lands with conservation, recreation, or ecological values; and/or indicators of social marginalization such as race, income, and language isolation. The specific research question(s) will be defined collaboratively based on the successful candidate’s interests and skills, but in any case the sub-project will include spatial analysis using a GIS and statistical analysis using R.

    Desired skills: Strong organizational and problem solving skills; Familiarity with or willingness to learn GIS; familiarity with or willingness to learn R; Interest in energy systems, land conservation, and/or environmental justice
    Helpful but not required: Familiarity with Python


    Subproject 3: Using field data to parameterize and calibrate the LANDIS-II forest disturbance and simulation model.
    Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) are a commonly used tool for projecting temporal changes in forest dynamics. The LANDIS-II framework is a widely used approach to project changes in forest carbon and species composition over time. As reliance on model output increases, the importance of calibrating/validating component processes such as establishment or partial disturbance also increases. For this subproject, the student will quantify empirical data, translate to LANDIS input, and validate the results. The goal will be to create a methodology for calibrating and evaluating the effectiveness of their method.

    This subproject will provide an opportunity to become familiar with the LANDIS FLM using a small test landscape.The student will also learn how to process outputs using R statistical software.

    Desired Skills: Interest in forest ecosystems and the use of FLMs to project possible future scenarios; Good computational and programming skills and experience with (or willingness to learn) R.

  • Readings:

    Duveneck, M. J., Thompson, J. R., Gustafson, E. J., Liang, Y., de Bruijn, A. M. G. 2017. Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests. Landscape Ecology 32: 1385-1397.
    Liang, Y., Duveneck, M., Gustafson, E., Serra-Diaz, J., Thompson, J. R. 2017. How disturbance, competition and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13847.

    (#2) Hernandez, R.R., Hoffacker, M.K., Murphy-Mariscal M.L., Wu, G.C., and Allen, M.F. 2015. Solar energy development impacts on land cover change and protected areas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 112(44): 13579-13584.

    (#2) Johnson, E., Hall, B., Powers, M., Therien, A., and Foster, D. 2019. The siting and impact of photovoltaic systems in Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden counties: A preliminary study. White paper.

    (#2) Rowland-Shea, J., Doshi, S., Edberg, Fanger R. 2020. The Nature Gap: Confronting Racial and Economic Disparities in the Destruction and Protection of Nature in America.
    https://cf.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/The-Nature-Gap4.pdf?_ga=2.74543633.2035936828.1637532597-780551981.1637532597.

    (#2) Sims, K.R.E., Lee, L.G., Estrella-Luna, N., Lurie, M., and J.R. Thompson. 2022. Environmental justice criteria for new land protection can inform efforts to address disparities in access to nearby open space. Environmental Research Letters 17: 064014. Web map: bit.ly/EJ-OS-NE

    Thompson, J. R., Simons-Legaard, E., Legaard, K., Domingo, J. B. 2016. A LANDIS-II extension for incorporating land use and other disturbances. Environmental Modelling & Software 75: 202-205.

    Novick, K., et al. 2022. The science needed for robust, scalable, and credible nature-based climate solutions in the United States: Full Report.

    Kaarakka, L., Cornett, M., Domke, G., Ontl, T. and Dee, L.E., 2021. Improved forest management as a natural climate solution: A review. Ecological Solutions and Evidence, 2(3), p.e12090.

  • Research Category: Regional Studies, Group Projects, Environmental Justice, Ecological Informatics and Modelling, Conservation and Management