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Harvard Forest REU Symposium Abstract 2018
- Title: Simulating effects of forest management practices in a fire prone region of the Northwestern US
- Author: Evan M Waldmann (University of Central Florida)
- Abstract:
Forest disturbances in the form of insects, pathogens, and natural disasters have become more prevalent over the last century; progressing into the 21st century, climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of such disturbances. Additionally, human response to this amplification has the potential to significantly alter the intensity and scope of these disturbances as a result of our ability to modify the landscape. In order to understand the extent of the effects that climate change, forest disturbances, and human response will have on forest dynamics, we simulated landscape change in a portion of the Klamath National Forest located in Northern California over 90 years (2010-2100). Using LANDIS-II, a forest growth and succession model that allows for the explorations of biological and cultural systems that govern the landscape over time, we designed six scenarios that enabled us to project landscape change with and without climate change, fire activity, and human response in the form of land management practices. We modeled proactive, reactive, and mixed human responses based on existing fire management plans. By implementing maintenance of fuel breaks by the Forest Service, reduction of connected fuels by private owners, and execution of salvage logging across the landscape, this project demonstrates not only that it is possible to simulate dynamic human response through land use, but also that it can be an important factor to consider when analyzing the effects of forest disturbances over long timescales.
- Research Category: Conservation and Management; Ecological Informatics and Modelling
