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Harvard Forest Symposium Abstract 2016

• Title: Managing Forests for Change Given an Uncertain Future
• Primary Author: Robert Scheller (Portland State University)
• Abstract:

  Forest change is continuous and ever-present. Projected future alterations to the fundamental determinants of forest composition and structure will, however, present large challenges to forest management and contains large uncertainty. Climate change, in particular, is fundamentally different than other drivers of change. Many human effects on natural systems are ephemeral or reversible and can be actively or passively restored over time. Climate change will be neither ephemeral nor reversible. Current projections are for substantial warming by the end of this century. As a result, climate change and associated disturbances will push forested landscapes into novel states from which they may never return and will generate a ‘no-analog’ future. But these changes will be shaped and guided by forest management. What role can forest management play in shaping the trajectories of forested landscapes? What management strategies will be reasonable and effective? When and where should they be deployed? Such information is critical in an era of declining resources and amplifying change, when difficult choices about which systems to save or protect must be made. My research addresses climate uncertainty and forest management actions using a variety of approaches including surveys of forest managers and ecosystem-climate-management modeling of potential futures.

• Research Category: Conservation and Management
  Ecological Informatics and Modelling
  Regional Studies
  Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics