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Harvard Forest Symposium Abstract 2015
- Title: Projected Agricultural Expansion in New England Over the Coming Half-Century: Implications for Water Resources
- Primary Author: Betsy Colburn (Harvard Forest)
- Abstract:
Strong support for locally produced food is contributing to an increase in the number of farms and a resurgence of agriculture in New England. Efforts are underway in all six states to support an expanded and rejuvenated regional food system. According to an analysis presented in "A New England Food Vision" (Donahue et al 2014), by 2060 the region could have a healthier diet, universal food access, and sustainable local production all of its vegetables, half its fruit, some grain and beans, and all dairy products, meats, and eggs. Key to achieving this production would be a tripling of the region’s farmland, largely to provide pasture and hay for livestock. Cattle would increase from 400,000 to 1.4 million animals, pigs from 44,000 to 2.6 million, sheep from 30,000 to 1.2 million, and poultry from 7.4 million to over 350 million. Increased sustainable farming would benefit New Englanders in many ways, but unrestricted agricultural expansion could seriously impair the region's inland and coastal waters. For my Bullard Fellowship, I am exploring how the conversion over the next fifty years of up to four million acres of forest, mostly on pre-1945 farmland, primarily for pasture-based livestock production, might affect water quality, and how agricultural intensification could be accomplished without adverse impacts on water resources. My research is considering a wide range of variables, including the history of farming and land use change in the region, geographic and economic factors governing agricultural livestock production and profitability, nutrient and manure cycling by New England soils and forage crops, projected nutrient and organic loads, current water quality in potential receiving waters, best management practices for pasture management and livestock production, and public policy needs to support both agricultural expansion and water resources.
Literature Cited: Donahue, Brian A., Molly D. Anderson, Amanda Beal, Linda Berlin, Joanne Burke, Tom Kelly, Mark Lapping, Russel Libby, and Hannah Ramer. 2014. A New England Food Vision. Food Solutions New England, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH. 46 pp. http://www.foodsolutionsne.org/new-england-food-vision
- Research Category: Watershed Ecology
