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Harvard Forest REU Symposium Abstract 2015
- Title: EcoApps: A tool for exploring ecosystem dynamics, tipping points, and early warning signals
- Author: Nathan V Justice (Tufts University)
- Abstract:
To facilitate the investigation of ecosystem tipping points across the scientific
community, this project's goal is to lead the development of a computational tool that will
allow researchers, regardless of their familiarity with formal programming languages, the
ability to simulate ecosystem dynamics and perform tipping point and early warning signal
analyses. Ostensibly stable ecosystems are sometimes susceptible to abrupt and drastic
changes from one state to another. These rapid state changes exhibit tipping points
(sometimes referred to as breakpoints or changepoints), which represent a threshold for a
change in the dynamics demonstrated by the ecosystem's state variables. The complexity of
ecosystem state changes is compounded by the knowledge that alternative states are often
not transient. Generally, humans and other wildlife are accustomed to a preferable
ecosystem state, and tipping points do not provide sufficient opportunity for adaptation.
Unexpected tipping points are increasingly more likely to occur as human impacts continue
to affect and alter ecosystem dynamics across the biosphere. Mounting ecological research
suggests tipping points can be simulated with mathematical and statistical models. In
addition, simulations of these models have the potential to illuminate early warning signals,
which are probable indicators that proceed an imminent tipping point. The product of this
project, EcoApps, is a series of web applications implemented using the Shiny framework
in R. Each application simulates a distinct ecosystem model. Users are able to explore the
model by manipulating parameters and perform tipping point an early warning signal
analyses on the simulation's components (observed data, trend, periodicity, and residuals). - Research Category: Ecological Informatics and Modelling
