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Harvard Forest REU Symposium Abstract 2015

• Title: Ecosystem services and hotspot distribution under four different land-use scenarios in Massachusetts, USA
• Author: Mayra I Rodriguez-Gonzalez (University of Puerto Rico - Bayamon)
• Abstract:

  Simulating land-use effects on ecosystem services can inform land management and policy decisions. Using four land-use scenarios for the state of Massachusetts, this study maps land-use impacts on the state’s capacity to provision ecosystem services over time, and emphasizes changes in the abundance and distribution of service “hotspots,” which are areas that provide a high value for multiple services. The scenarios depict alternative trajectories of land-use over the next 50 years, including different rates, intensities, and spatial arrangements of development, harvest, agriculture and conservation. Throughout the simulations, the Recent Trends scenario had the least area of hotspots, but those areas were comparatively stable. In contrast, the Opportunistic Growth scenario had the greatest loss of high-value areas, while the Regional Self-Reliance scenario had the greatest increase in high-value areas. In all scenarios, the area of hotspots increased through time, which reflects the concentration of services on to less area and, in some cases, the expansion of timber and agriculture. We conclude that, in aggregate, land-use decisions produce distinct patterns of ecosystem service provisioning. However, we also note that the estimated effects of land-use on services are strongly affected by the modeling approach. Nonetheless, this type of multi-service, multi-scenario assessment can inform policymakers regarding the potential consequences of land-use and assist them in identifying priority conservation zones.

• Research Category: Conservation and Management; Ecological Informatics and Modelling